A commonly cited model of the US coronavirus crisis now predicts that 60,000 Americans will die of the virus by early August, marking a significant decrease from past projections.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.
It now projects U.S. deaths at more than 60,000 by Aug. 4, down from the nearly 82,000 fatalities it had forecast on Tuesday.
The White House coronavirus task force has previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.
The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will begin to abate a little sooner than previously expected.
Surgeon general Jerome Adams similarly said yesterday that he expects the death toll to fall below the 100,000 to 240,000 range previously predicted by the White House, thanks to Americans practicing social distancing.
“That’s absolutely my expectation, and I feel a lot more optimistic, again, because I’m seeing mitigation work,” Adams said.